Nationwide lockdown measures could be reintroduced at the end of summer, Government scientists say.
New infection rate data from the UKs Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) suggests the outbreak in England may no longer be shrinking.
The R reproduction estimate in England has seen an uptick to between 0.8 and 1, up from between 0.8-0.9 the previous week.
The upper end of that estimate at 1 would mean on average every person who catches the virus is passing it on to someone else.
A separate measure of growth rate suggests the outbreak is shrinking less, but is still coming down slowly.
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Some of this is thought to be down to the warm weather and the fact that people can spend more time outdoors where the virus cannot easily spread.
SAGE now believes the virus spreads at an optimal temperature of 4C and is braced for a fresh winter crisis.
A source said: If the number overall increases then I would expect to have to impose some national measures.
The aim is always to reduce close contacts.
The growth rate estimate of new infections per day for England is now from -4% to -1%. This changed from between -5% to -2%.
Some of the slower spread is thought to be down to the warm weather (Image: Stuart Walker/SWNS)
Sage said the only region with a robust estimate that suggested its R rate could have reached 1 was the North West.
It recorded a range of 0.7 and 1. This was up from 0.7 and 0.9 the previous week.
It comes after criticism that the NHS Test and Trace system is not fit for purpose and is only contacting around a third of new symptomatic Covid-19 cases.
The source said: It really depends how effective we can be with test and trace. They are all over wanting to improve that.
They’re very clear what they have to do. All of this has to be working absolutely faultlessly by [winter].”
Scientists fear ministers will be slow to reintroduce lockdown fearing criticism that they got the strategy wrong.
Scientists fear ministers will be slow to reintroduce lockdown, fearing criticism that they got the strategy wrong (Image: 10 Downing Street/AFP via Getty)
Prof James Naismith, of Oxford University, said: The virus is here and we could easily see a surge in cases if a mistake is made.
Much more important than an individual decision to relax this or that measure, will be a willingness to admit error and reverse the decision in the light of new data.
This how science works, with new and incomplete understanding, honest mistakes end up being made.
With more data, errors are corrected without blame and shame, everyone moves forward.
Things will end very badly for the UK, if the decision to relax or lock down a specific activity becomes a test of consistency or a contest to see who was right all along.
A dose of humility is called for.
The UK R estimate remained at between 0.7 and 0.9.
The growth rate of infections per day is -5% to -2%.
Prof Oliver Johnson, of Bristol University, said: The fact that R is still estimated to be below 1 across the UK implies that the epidemic is continuing to shrink overall.
However it is too early to judge the effect of Super Saturday openings based on these numbers, since any infections that took place last weekend are unlikely to have led to positive tests soon enough to influence them.
