Dr. Scott Gottlieb, Pfizer board member and former FDA commissioner, is making regular appearances on CNBC to discuss coronavirus (COVID-19).
Here are some key points* The US has very few testing labs that can confirm coronavirus (COVID-19) and there is a two-week lag to get results back from the CDC (Center for Disease Control)* The US has performed about 500 tests. There is likely low-level outbreaks that cannot be detected. If there was an outbreak with thousands of cases we would know about it because a hospital would get a surge of cases* Coronavirus (COVID-19) has cases and transmission in warm countries now. This means that April or Summer and warm weather alone will not stop the virus. There could be a dip in the spread of the disease like we saw with H1N1.
Almost Half of Infected Travelers Will Not Get Detected With Airport Screening
The newest coronavirus incubation period estimate is around 6.4 days, ranging from 2-11 days. This long incubation period means that people can be unaware that they are sick for about a week, and there have been multiple reported cases of people transmitting the virus prior to the onset of symptoms.
A new study predicted that 46% of infected travelers will board planes with undetected infections, therefore limiting the effectiveness of airport screening and risking spread to other passengers and diverse locations.
Parameter values and assumptions for the baseline scenario estimating effectiveness of exit and entry screening at airports for detecting passengers infected with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).
Wuhan Outbreak Seems to Be Peaking Now
The number of new cases in Wuhan seems to be going down. Modeling has suggested that the Wuhan outbreak is peaking in late February 2020.
Latest Estimate of Transmission is a Higher Infection Rate
The latest estimate of infection rate is that cases double every 2.4 days. The transmission rate is estimated at 4.7-6.0.
Quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
SOURCES – medrxiv, Eurosurveillance, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Disease, Doherty Institute – University of MelbourneWritten By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a prolific business-oriented writer of emerging and disruptive technologies. He is known for insightful articles that combine business and technical analysis that catches the attention of the general public and is also useful for those in the industries. He is the sole author and writer of nextbigfuture.com, the top online science blog. He is also involved in angel investing and raising funds for breakthrough technology startup companies.
He gave the recent keynote presentation at Monte Jade event with a talk entitled the Future for You. He gave an annual update on molecular nanotechnology at Singularity University on nanotechnology, gave a TEDX talk on energy, and advises USC ASTE 527 (advanced space projects program). He has been interviewed for radio, professional organizations. podcasts and corporate events. He was recently interviewed by the radio program Steel on Steel on satellites and high altitude balloons that will track all movement in many parts of the USA.
He fundraises for various high impact technology companies and has worked in computer technology, insurance, healthcare and with corporate finance.
He has substantial familiarity with a broad range of breakthrough technologies like age reversal and antiaging, quantum computers, artificial intelligence, ocean tech, agtech, nuclear fission, advanced nuclear fission, space propulsion, satellites, imaging, molecular nanotechnology, biotechnology, medicine, blockchain, crypto and many other areas.
